INDEX
Introduction.
This article is a commentary on a paper co-authored on September 12, 2022 by Keeley Alexander Ryuta, Chief Researcher at aiESG, as well as Chief Scientific Advisor Hidetaro Takeda and Representative Director Shunsuke Managi.
Title of paper: Potential for reducing CO2 emissions from passenger cars in Japan by 2030 to achieve carbon neutrality
DOI (paper link):https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iatssr.2023.02.004
This article provides an easy-to-understand explanation of the research and the services provided by aiESG. those interested in ESG data analysis and strategy development are encouraged to read to the end.
Types of vehicles used in this article
IECV (gasoline-powered vehicle): Fueled exclusively by gasoline.
BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle): Runs on a motor without gasoline, recharging the battery with an external power source.
HEV (Hybrid Electric Vehicle): Runs on two types of energy, gasoline and electricity, but cannot be powered by an external source.
PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle): Uses two forms of energy, gasoline and electricity, and can be powered by an external source.
FCV (Fuel Cell Vehicle): Runs on a motor fueled by hydrogen.
Research Points/Summary
This study forecasts and evaluates CO2 emissions from passenger cars in Japan in 2030 based on scenarios for the introduction of next-generation vehicles such as HEVs and BEVs. The environmental impact of the entire life cycle from vehicle manufacturing to fuel production and use was analyzed. As a result, it was found that PHEVs are the most effective means of reducing CO2 emissions, while FCVs have a high impact due to their manufacturing and hydrogen supply. It was concluded that in addition to the spread of electric vehicles, increasing the ratio of renewable energy and improving fuel efficiency are important for achieving carbon neutrality.
Background and Objectives
In 2020, transportation-related CO2 emissions accounted for about 751 TP3T worldwide and about 191 TP3T in Japan. emissions from the transportation sector, especially from passenger cars, is essential to realize a sustainable society.
Next-generation vehicles powered by electricity or hydrogen emit less CO2 when driven and are considered a key to decarbonization. However, accurate evaluation of these benefits requires a comprehensive perspective that takes into account the environmental impact not only during driving, but also during battery charging, hydrogen production, and even during vehicle production and disposal.
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the extent to which next-generation vehicles can contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Japan, and to make recommendations toward carbon neutrality.
research methods
This study used Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to comprehensively evaluate the environmental impact of each vehicle type during its production and fuel use phases. The fuel life cycle includes the entire process of production, storage, transport to the fueling station, refueling, and use. The data used include the following
- Applicable models: 5 models of ICEV, HEV, PHEV, BEV, and FCV
- Scope of Coverage:
- Number of units in use in Japan in 2019: 62.19 million
- New units sold in 2019: 4.33 million
- Total mileage per vehicle: 150,000 km (assumed)
- Fuel: gasoline, electricity, and hydrogen
In addition, the following four scenarios were set up and studied for the utilization ratio in 2030.
- For all gasoline-powered vehicles
- Maintain status quo (assuming constant percentage of each type of car from 2020 to 2030)
- 50~701 TP3T of new car sales are next generation vehicles
Referring to the Japanese government's roadmap, the number of FCVs in use is assumed to be 800,000. - When aiming for zero gasoline vehicles in 2035
Estimated 18.61 TP3T for gasoline vehicles in 2030, based on the percentage decrease from 2020.
result
The analysis of this study yielded the following findings
- FCEVs and BEVs showed higher trends in environmental impacts such as acidification and human toxicity.
- FCEVs emit the highest amount of CO2 during vehicle manufacturing, approximately 10 times that of gasoline vehicles; BEVs also emit approximately four times that of gasoline vehicles.
- PHEVs had the lowest CO2 emissions when using fuel, followed by HEVs and BEVs.
- CO2 emissions over the entire life cycle were lower for PHEVs, HEVs, and BEVs than for gasoline vehicles, and higher for FCEVs than for gasoline vehicles.
*Fuel is calculated in terms of CO2 emissions per kilometer traveled.
(Figure 3 in the paper was translated by aiESG)
- The projected greenhouse gas emissions for each scenario were highest for the 1001 TP3T gasoline vehicle and lowest for the status quo scenario.
(Figure 4 in the paper was translated by aiESG)
consideration
This study shows that PHEVs are the most effective means of reducing CO2 emissions in Japan. In the future, further reduction of environmental burden can be expected as the ratio of renewable energy in electric power and improvement of fuel efficiency of automobiles progresses. On the other hand, FCVs tend to have a high environmental impact throughout their life cycle due to the effects of hydrogen production and transportation processes.
These results suggest that promoting the introduction of PHEVs and other next-generation vehicles while reducing the environmental impact of electricity supply and manufacturing processes is a step toward decarbonization.
summary
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